The past six months have been primarily depressing for XRP, the native cryptocurrency of the Ripple Network. Now, the asset appears to be flashing a capitulation signal as holders realize major losses amid panic selling.
Data from Glassnode shows that on-chain profitability for the digital asset has flipped negative, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) falling from 1.16 on July 25, 2025, to 0.96 currently. Analysts say the current setup mirrors that seen during the September 2021 to May 2022 period, when the SOPR for XRP fell into the <1 range. A prolonged consolidation followed the plunge, leading to stabilization.
XRP Holders Realize Huge Losses
Since August 2025, the price of XRP has been in a steady decline, recovering only briefly before resuming its descent. By late October, the price had dropped 27% from $3.5 in mid-July to $2.4. As the asset lost its value, long-term holders who had accumulated before November 2024 increased their spending by 580% from $38 million per day to $260 million per day.
The numbers remained steady into early November, highlighting a distribution into weakness, not strength. Analysts noted that the spending spree was unlike past profit-realization waves that aligned with rallies. There was a clear signal that experienced traders were exiting their positions, adding pressure to the price of XRP.
By mid-November, the share of XRP supply in profit had plummeted to 58.5%, the lowest since November 2024, when the asset was worth $0.53. Even though XRP traded around $2.15 at the time, four times higher than the November 2024 price, more than 41% of the coin’s supply was sitting in losses. It was an indication that the market was top-heavy, structurally fragile, and dominated by late buyers.
Capitulation Signal or Structural Failure?
As the bears would have it, the price of XRP fell below $2 in mid-November, and the 30-day estimated market average (30D-EMA) of daily realized losses surged to $75 million. Since the beginning of the year, investors have realized between $500 million and $1.2 billion in losses per week each time XRP has retested $2. $2 is now a major psychological zone for XRP holders.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.40, having lost its aggregate holder cost basis, which explains the panic selling. Such moves have raised questions about whether the XRP market is in a capitulation or experiencing a structural failure. Experts insist the former is the case because fundamentals are stronger now, unlike 2022, when regulatory clarity did not exist.
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