Bitcoin (BTC) on the Edge: 23% Rally or 30% Crash Comes Next?

The primary cryptocurrency, which performed quite well towards the end of April and beginning of May, has tumbled by 5% over the past week, sparking fears that the bottom of the bear cycle has yet to be reached.

One popular analyst believes that its eventual breakout would heavily depend on holding a critical support level.

Big Jump or Major Collapse?

Ali Martinez – a renowned analyst who often makes BTC predictions after observing certain technical indicators and factors – once again chipped in. This time, he paid special attention to the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands and envisioned a rally to almost $95,000 should the asset’s valuation hold above $72,960.

At the same time, Martinez claimed that falling below this key zone could trigger a major pullback to just under $55,000, representing a 30% crash from today’s price.

In a separate post, the X user revealed that BTC’s MVRV ratio has plunged below its 180-day SMA. Unlike traditional models, which see this development as a cooling phase, Martinez views it as “a shift toward a high-conviction accumulation zone.”

“When the MVRV ratio sits below the 180-day moving average, it means the market is effectively flushing out premium and pricing in a deep discount. Historically, these specific periods mark the exact foundation on which long-term smart money builds its positions. As long as the ratio consolidates under this 180-day line, the short-term trend will remain compressed, offering a highly strategic accumulation window,” he explained.

The latest activity of the big investors supports the bullish outlook. As CryptoPotato reported, the number of market participants holding at least 100 BTC has increased to 20,229. This represents an 11% increase compared to the 18,191 wallets recorded in May 2025.

Such a development shows that these big shots are confident in the asset and position themselves for a potential price pump in the future. This could have a psychological effect on smaller players, who may follow suit and inject fresh capital into the ecosystem.

Is History Repeating?

Meanwhile, other analysts made pessimistic forecasts and expect BTC to post a painful decline in the short term. Among those is X user Chiefy, who argued that the asset is entering the exact same pivot zone that appeared during the 2022 market meltdown.

They reminded that back then, many people described the crash as a “healthy correction,” suggesting that now history is repeating. If that is indeed the case, BTC could tumble to as low as $45,000 in the coming months.

Another worrying factor is the rising amount of coins stored on crypto exchanges. CryptoQuant’s data show the figure currently stands at almost 2.7 million, close to the monthly high reached earlier this week. This shift suggests that some investors have abandoned self-custody methods in favor of centralized platforms, thereby increasing immediate selling pressure.