The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 30 points following the October 29 attack on Binance, as market sentiment remained firmly in fear territory.
The security breach resulted in losses of $6.3 billion. The exchange said it had covered and replenished approximately 95% of the assets stolen. However, prominent analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the market sentiment was already weakening before the incident.
Fear Territory
The index fell from 68 points on October 22 to 51 by October 29, before the attack coincided with another sharp decline. Adler’s findings revealed that the 30-day average currently stands at 56 points, which was indicative of how much weaker sentiment has become compared with its average level over the past month.
The current reading is also below the historical median of 44, although it remains above the lower quartile of 26. According to the analysis, a sustained rise in the index, supported by a recovery in price, is needed to confirm an improvement in market sentiment.
Meanwhile, Doctor Profit considers the hack a black swan event. He identified three crucial price levels for Bitcoin that will determine the market’s next move. The first is $76,000, which he says must hold to keep the bull-market structure alive. The level previously confirmed the breakout into the bull market and sits near major weekly support and the 50-week moving average. A break below it, confirmed by two to three daily closes, could expose Bitcoin to a deeper decline towards $67,000-$69,000.
The second level is $78,000, where a proper reclaim, supported by daily closes above it, would mean that panic selling has been absorbed and buyers are taking back control. The third level is $82,000. Doctor Profit wants Bitcoin to reclaim the $80,000-$81,000 support zone first, which would prevent it from turning into resistance. Additionally, regaining $82,000 would signal a stronger bullish structure, but further delays could give bears more control.
Bigger Hacks Ahead?
The October 2026 Binance hack is the largest cryptocurrency theft in history, roughly four times larger than Bybit’s February 2025 exploit, which was previously one of the biggest. Trace Finance co-founder Bernardo Brites expects such records will continue to be broken as crypto prices rise and exchanges hold more assets, making each potential breach bigger than the last. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Brites explained,
“What’s changed is the speed of the threat. AI tools can now find vulnerabilities faster than teams can patch them, which is why we’ve seen a string of major incidents in recent months. For an exchange the size of Binance, the question isn’t whether it can make users whole. Between its emergency user fund, its corporate reserves and its ability to raise capital, it likely can. The real question is what this means for everyone else.”
Brites also said that there could be a “flight to size,” with users moving towards larger, more regulated and better-capitalized exchanges because many small and mid-sized platforms may not survive a hack of this scale. The exec added that some users could turn to DeFi and self-custody to hold their own keys, while simultaneously warning that these options are not risk-free either, as DeFi protocols have also suffered numerous exploits.
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