“We’re going to bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement.” Donald Trump said that at the same press conference where he announced the US-Iran peace deal, leaving traders holding a ceasefire that comes with an explicit threat wired into it.
On the latest peace deal, Brent crude fell substantially while gold, the S&P 500 hit a record, and Bitcoin spiked thanks to the Strait of Hormuz reopening. This removed the supply shock that had sent oil above $100 a barrel earlier this year. But Trump attached a condition to every one of those moves.
What Markets Saw the Last Time Trump Changed His Mind
This situation has a preview. In April, Trump announced a ceasefire, markets celebrated, and then the deal collapsed. When hostilities resumed, Brent peaked at $126 a barrel, its wartime high. Stocks sold off, and gold spiked toward $4,800. Bitcoin dropped as risk appetite collapsed across the board. The April ceasefire taught traders that pricing in peace before it holds is a trap.
Oil Prices, Gold, and Bitcoin in a Deal Collapse Scenario
Brent crude peaked at $126 at the height of the conflict. It sits close to $75 today, June 18. That gap is the peace premium markets are now holding. If Trump follows through on his threat, that premium unwinds fast, with oil likely retracing toward conflict-era levels.
Gold climbed on the peace announcement but peaked near $4,800 during the worst of the fighting. A return to hostilities puts that ceiling back in play.
Bitcoin has been here before: it rallied 3% on the deal but fell sharply each time Trump escalated earlier this year. At around $64,000 today, it is pricing a calmer macro environment. That assumption sits on the same fragile foundation as the rest.
If the deal holds, the IEA expects global oil supply to recover from 102.4 to 110.3 million barrels per day in 2027, turning the worst energy supply shock in decades into a potential glut. That outcome requires exactly what Trump has now made conditional.
Markets have done their job and priced in peace. The next move belongs entirely to Tehran, and to whether Trump decides the deal is worth keeping.
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