A cluster of popular wallets suspected of being ‘insiders’ on Polymarket are now betting for a US-Iran ceasefire by March 31.
The timing coincides with recent claims from Donald Trump that “productive discussions” with Iran are underway — claims that Tehran has publicly denied.
On-chain data shows that on February 28, just before Trump launched strikes on Iran, six newly funded wallets placed large “Yes” bets on the outcome “US strikes Iran by Feb 28.”
These wallets were funded roughly 24 hours earlier and later generated an estimated $1.2 million in profit.
The same wallets then went on to place successful bets on subsequent Iranian nuclear facility strikes, further raising questions about timing and information advantage.
Now, those addresses appear to be active again.
Recent activity shows coordinated bets of around $100,000 on a new outcome: a US–Iran ceasefire by March 31, with additional positions extending into April.
Markets Now Driven by War Narratives
Analysts say the pattern is consistent. New or lightly funded wallets enter positions shortly before major geopolitical developments, then exit with significant gains.
While there is no confirmed evidence of insider trading, the precision of these trades has raised concerns. Prediction markets like Polymarket operate on public blockchains, making flows visible but identities difficult to verify.
The latest ceasefire bets also reflect how markets are reacting to shifting narratives around the conflict.
Conflicting signals between Washington and Tehran have already triggered sharp moves across stocks, oil, and crypto. Traders appear to be positioning not just on events, but on how those events are communicated.
For now, these wallets remain under close watch as the market awaits clarity on whether a ceasefire will materialize.
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