Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead calls the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback plan a bluff that backfired. He ties Bitcoin’s 26% August rally directly to it.
Speaking on Bloomberg Crypto, Morehead argued investors saw through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move almost immediately.
The Buyback That Backfired
On August 19, Bessent doubled the Treasury’s bond buybacks to ease borrowing costs. The program lets the government repurchase its own debt to influence bond yields. The cap rose to at least $4 billion per operation.
Morehead said the increase looked tiny against the $2 trillion in bonds the Treasury must sell every year. Highlighting the gap, he argued, only exposed the depth of the debt problem rather than solving it.
“It backfired because everyone could see they are off by three orders of magnitude.”
Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital founder, Bloomberg
Bitcoin’s Best August Since 2021
Bitcoin climbed 26% in August, its strongest month since November 2025. It marked the first net positive August since 2021, briefly topping $81,000. BTC traded near $77,258 at press time, per BeInCrypto data.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a different tone at Jackson Hole. He argued stronger growth could lift rates and reduce the appeal of yield-free assets like bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin retreated after the speech, giving Morehead’s bullish debt thesis its clearest pushback yet.
Morehead called crypto a macro trade that benefits whenever governments keep expanding debt. He pointed to Pantera’s call that Bitcoin would peak at $117,542 on August 10, 2025, a forecast that held. He argued the same four-year cycle model now points to another leg higher once this pullback ends.
Bitcoin peaking on the exact day Pantera called years earlier means the current pullback fits the same script, according to Morehead. He said the pattern has held for the 13 years his fund has tracked it.
Morehead expects a new upswing to begin near the end of this year, followed by another two to three year run.
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