Nike stock has fallen into one of its deepest downturns in years, with NKE dropping roughly 40% in 2026 and becoming the worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shares closed Friday at $38.40, leaving the sportswear giant with a market capitalization of just $56.97 billion, down sharply from roughly $264 billion at the end of 2021.
The selloff has created an unusual setup for the Nike price prediction. Wall Street’s average 12-month target stands near $50.46, implying approximately 31% upside despite an overall Neutral consensus.
At the same time, JPMorgan and Truist have recently lowered their expectations, Nike is preparing to leave the S&P 100, and weakness in China and direct-to-consumer sales continues to complicate CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround.
Nike Stock Is Cheap, but Wall Street Remains Cautious
Nike’s 40% decline has dramatically changed its valuation. The stock now trades at roughly 18 times trailing earnings, compared with approximately 31 times in fiscal 2022. Its price-to-sales multiple has contracted even more sharply, falling from around 4.0 to approximately 1.2.
Those multiples make NKE look inexpensive compared with its own recent history. The problem is that a lower valuation does not necessarily mean the stock has reached a bottom.
Investors are still trying to determine how much earnings pressure Nike will experience before its turnaround begins producing sustainable growth.
JPMorgan added to those concerns in August by downgrading Nike to Underweight and cutting its price target to $40. The bank warned that the financial effects of Hill’s “Win Now” strategy could weigh on earnings through fiscal 2028, while the company’s Greater China reset could create more than $1 billion in annual revenue pressure.
Truist also lowered its rating and reduced its price target to $42. Weaker footwear trends at Dick’s Sporting Goods contributed to concerns that Nike’s recovery could take longer than investors previously expected.
That leaves a sizable gap between the broader Wall Street outlook and some of the more cautious analysts. The average target of $50.46 suggests substantial recovery potential, but recent downgrades indicate that investors may need clearer evidence of improving sales and margins before assigning NKE a higher multiple.
S&P 100 Exit Highlights How Far Nike Has Fallen
Nike’s decline is also changing its position among America’s largest companies. S&P Dow Jones Indices is set to remove Nike from the S&P 100 on September 21 as technology companies including Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks, and SanDisk join the index.
The removal does not directly change Nike’s underlying business, but it highlights the scale of the company’s loss in market value.
NKE is now roughly 78% below its November 2021 record high, while its approximately $57 billion market capitalization is only a fraction of its former peak.
Nike’s Business Is Holding Up Better Than Its Stock Price
The 40% decline in Nike shares has not been matched by an equivalent collapse in the underlying business. Fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $46.4 billion, roughly flat year over year on a reported basis.
There are signs that Elliott Hill’s strategy is changing the composition of Nike’s sales. Wholesale revenue increased 6%, reflecting efforts to rebuild relationships with retailers after the company’s previous emphasis on direct-to-consumer distribution.
Nike Direct revenue, however, declined 6%, while digital sales dropped 12%.
That divergence explains why the turnaround remains difficult to evaluate. Improving wholesale performance suggests that Nike is repairing an important part of its distribution network, but weakness in its own channels shows that consumer demand remains uneven.
China presents another major challenge. Previous weakness in the region has already weighed on Nike’s results, and JPMorgan expects the Greater China reset to create more than $1 billion in annual revenue pressure.
Until that market stabilizes, stronger performance elsewhere may struggle to translate into a decisive earnings recovery.
The difficulties are not exclusive to Nike. Lululemon has fallen about 52% this year amid weaker leggings sales and market-share pressure.
CoinCodex Nike Price Prediction
According to analysts from CoinCodex, NKE could remain under pressure through the remainder of 2026 before staging a partial recovery in early 2027. September carries an average forecast of approximately $32.51, while October is the weakest near-term month, with an average projection of just $30.18 and a potential low of $28.85.
The outlook improves toward year-end, with the November average rising to $35.19 and December reaching $37.14, although even the December high of $38.98 would leave Nike close to its current $38.40 share price.
The forecast becomes more constructive at the beginning of 2027. January carries an average projection of $41.78 and a potential high of $42.78, while February produces the strongest upside target at $43.07.
Average prices remain around $40 through April, suggesting that CoinCodex expects an early-year recovery, but not enough to reach Wall Street’s $50.46 average analyst target. That difference is notable because the analyst consensus implies roughly 31% upside, while the algorithmic forecast anticipates a much more restrained rebound.
Momentum then weakens again during the second half of the supplied forecast. The average price falls from $39.06 in May to $36.35 in June and $36.01 in July before slipping to $34.99 in August.
By September 2027, CoinCodex projects an average NKE price of $31.80 and a possible low of $29.76. The broader Nike price prediction therefore points to a temporary recovery rather than a sustained reversal, with early 2027 offering the strongest period before renewed weakness emerges later in the year.
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