Binance agreed to pay $4.3 billion to settle a US criminal case in 2023. Less than three years later, federal prosecutors are checking whether the world’s largest crypto exchange broke the terms of that deal.
Tysen Duva, head of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, confirmed to Bloomberg on October 9 that officials are reviewing Binance’s compliance.
Three Developments Raising Questions
The first concern involves a suspected Iranian payment network. The Wall Street Journal reported that accounts tied to financier Babak Zanjani processed around $850 million through Binance.
Its latest investigation describes a VIP customer whose suspicious trades drew inquiries from US and Swiss authorities. Binance says it closed the accounts.
Then came a $61 million forfeiture case filed in September. Prosecutors allege that two Chinese firms, Blessed Trust and Hexa Whale, used Binance accounts to launder proceeds from Iranian oil sales.
The wider network allegedly moved more than $1.5 billion. Binance says it investigated and removed both companies.
The third development concerns Binance’s response to suspected sanctions violations.
Earlier reports suggested that prosecutors were examining whether the exchange knowingly allowed prohibited trades. That broader investigation overlaps with the other two cases.
The DOJ has not identified which incidents, if any, are part of its settlement review. No wrongdoing has been alleged against Binance or its employees in the forfeiture complaint.
What Happened When Other Companies Broke US Deals?
- In 2023, Ericsson admitted breaching a deferred-prosecution agreement. The telecoms company pleaded guilty and paid another $206.7 million. Its compliance monitor’s term was extended.
- Standard Chartered faced further penalties in 2019. The bank agreed to more than $1 billion in global penalties over historical Iran sanctions violations, alongside an extended prosecution agreement.
- Then there is Boeing. The DOJ found in 2024 that the aircraft manufacturer breached its agreement. Yet Boeing later secured a new non-prosecution deal. Its criminal charge was dismissed in 2025.
The comparison has limits. Binance already pleaded guilty in 2023; those cases involved deferred-prosecution agreements.
What Are the Odds of Another Major Penalty?
Past cases point to several possible outcomes, ranging from tougher compliance oversight to additional fines or fresh criminal proceedings.
A negotiated resolution appears more plausible than an immediate move against Binance’s operations. Prosecutors would have a stronger case for criminal charges if evidence showed deliberate sanctions breaches or concealment.
There is no reliable statistical basis for assigning percentage odds from these few cases.
The deciding question is straightforward: What did Binance know about the suspicious activity, and how quickly did it act?
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