Three small bets that Katie Zacharia would become Trump’s press secretary went in before the news broke. Kalshi is now investigating the trades, which risked under $175 and could pay more than $9,500.
Zacharia was not seen as a front-runner. In the days before President Donald Trump named her on Friday, bettors on Kalshi gave her about a 1% chance.
How Did Bets on a 1% Trump Press Secretary Pick Land Early?
Kalshi is a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users buy contracts on real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so a 1% chance costs about 1 cent.
The first bet, for $19, went in around 10:43 p.m. ET on Thursday. That’s according to a Journal review of public Kalshi data. It is set to pay $1,896.
Two more bets, of about $74 and $80, followed at around 1:41 p.m. on Friday. They are set to pay $3,689 and $4,023.
About 20 minutes later, The New York Times and other outlets began reporting the pick. Trump then confirmed it on Truth Social.
Kalshi doesn’t show traders’ names publicly, but it keeps records of who placed each bet.
Is Kalshi’s White House Problem Growing?
Zacharia is an attorney and a regular commentator on Fox News and Newsmax. She advises Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that runs Truth Social, on communications. She replaces Karoline Leavitt.
“Serving President Trump and the American people at this critical 250-year mark is the honor of a lifetime,” Zacharia wrote after Trump’s announcement.
Notably, this is not Kalshi’s first case tied to the White House. In August, Trump’s teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, settled with the CFTC over bets on the president’s speeches. He handed back $107,539, paid a $65,000 penalty, and accepted a three-year trading ban.
Earlier, a run of well-timed bets on the Iran war prompted a White House memo. It warned staff against using nonpublic information for private gain.
Lawmakers also opened a separate insider trading probe last month into three other platforms. Kalshi has not said where its Zacharia review could lead.
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