Strategy (MSTR) needs to acquire roughly 261,269 more Bitcoin (BTC), worth an estimated $22.2 billion, to reach its implied target of 1 million BTC by the end of 2026.
The company held 738,731 BTC as of this writing, purchased at an average price of $75,860 per coin. With about 42 weeks left in 2026, that target requires weekly purchases averaging 6,158 BTC, or roughly $523 million per week at an assumed $85,000 BTC price.
Strategy’s Accumulation Pace and the Road to 1 Million BTC
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy has purchased approximately 64,948 BTC year-to-date in 2026. That figure puts the company well ahead of its historical average of roughly 128,000 BTC per year since launching its Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020.
Recent activity suggests the pace may be sustainable. In the week ending March 9, Strategy added 17,994 BTC for $1.28 billion.
This was funded primarily through $900 million in common stock sales and $377 million from its STRC preferred stock series. That single purchase was nearly three times the required weekly average.
The company has now made 12 or more consecutive weekly purchases in 2026. Strategy funds these acquisitions through equity issuance, convertible debt, and preferred shares.
Its at-the-market program still carries billions in remaining capacity across MSTR common stock and multiple preferred series, including STRC, STRK, STRD, and STRF.
However, sustaining that trajectory requires continued access to capital markets. MSTR shares have dropped roughly 70% from their 2025 peak, and outstanding shares have grown from 76 million to around 320 million.
Strategy carries over $8 billion in total debt, including $6 billion in convertible notes collateralized by its Bitcoin holdings.
If Bitcoin falls significantly further from recent levels near $74,000, stress tests suggest equity could face severe pressure. At the same time, depressed BTC prices make accumulation cheaper per coin, which could help the volume target even as dollar costs decline.
MARA’s Treasury Pivot Raises Questions About the HODL Model
While Strategy doubles down on accumulation, MARA Holdings (MARA) moved in the opposite direction. In early March 2026, MARA updated its treasury policy through a 10-K SEC filing, expanding its mandate to allow sales of Bitcoin held on its balance sheet. Previously, the company had only permitted sales of newly mined coins.
MARA holds approximately 53,822 BTC, making it the second-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company reported a $1.7 billion net loss in Q4 2025, driven largely by a $1.5 billion non-cash write-down tied to Bitcoin’s price decline during the period.
About 28% of MARA’s holdings are already deployed through lending and collateral arrangements. The company generated $32.1 million in interest income from Bitcoin lending in 2025 but recorded an overall $86.3 million loss in that segment after accounting for price depreciation.
MARA has also accelerated a pivot into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, including a joint venture with Starwood Capital Group to build data centers.
Executive compensation was recently tied to megawatt capacity rather than mining output, signaling a structural shift in corporate priorities.
Two Models, Two Bets on Bitcoin’s Future
Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT, told BeInCrypto that MARA’s shift reflects a more sustainable approach to treasury management in volatile conditions.
“Strategy’s model works when capital markets stay open, and investors maintain appetite for Bitcoin proxy exposure, but the cracks are showing. The stock is down roughly 72% from its 2025 peak, outstanding shares have grown from 76 million to around 320 million, and the mNAV has fallen below 1.0, meaning shares now trade at a discount to the Bitcoin they represent,” said Randin in an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto.
Randin noted that the broader mining industry is undergoing a similar rotation. Post-halving production costs sit around $87,000 per Bitcoin while the market trades near $70,000, forcing miners to produce at a loss.
Core Scientific has described its mining operations as essentially winding down, while Bitfarms is rebranding as Keel Infrastructure and Riot is moving toward a power-as-a-service model.
On whether MARA’s policy shift creates supply overhang risk from its 53,822 BTC, Randin argued the threat is more psychological than mechanical.
“Bitcoin’s daily spot trading volume runs between $10 billion and $25 billion, depending on the day, so the entire reserve amounts to less than a single day’s volume. The market has absorbed larger concentrated distributions before… The real overhang is psychological rather than mechanical,” he said.
Still, Randin cautioned that thin liquidity conditions and MARA’s 28% deployed holdings, with an implied loan-to-value ratio around 87%, could create forced selling pressure if Bitcoin falls further.
For Strategy, the 1 million BTC target remains aggressive but not impossible. If the company maintains its current buying rhythm and capital markets stay open, it could reach the figure by late 2026.
However, a prolonged bear market, tighter funding conditions, or investor fatigue over ongoing dilution could force a slower pace or a strategic rethink.
The next 8-K filing, expected this week, will provide the freshest signal on whether that momentum holds.
The post Can Strategy Buy 6,158 BTC Weekly? Analyst Says the HODL Model Is Breaking appeared first on BeInCrypto.
