The Brent crude oil (UKOIL) price gained almost 11% on Monday, reaching $83.31 after a bounce from the $71-$73 support zone. The move ranks among the sharpest daily advances since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.
Renewed US-Iran strikes and Washington’s plan to control the Strait of Hormuz drove the rally. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted a breakout, suggesting further upside.
Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Plan Sends Oil Soaring
US forces struck hundreds of targets in Iran over the weekend, followed by dozens more on Sunday. The US Central Command said the strikes aim to degrade Iran’s ability to attack vessels in the strait.
Tehran answered with missile and drone attacks on US facilities across the Gulf. Iran also declared the strait closed again and warned ships against crossing outside its authorized routes.
Washington escalated further with a plan to take direct control of Hormuz. The corridor carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade in peacetime.
Shipping data shows the standoff is already choking supply routes. Only nine vessels crossed the strait in a 12-hour window on Sunday, compared with about 130 daily crossings before the war.
Equity markets absorbed the shock differently. Japanese stocks have already lost 82 trillion yen in three weeks, and the Nikkei 225 fell almost 2% on Monday. In contrast, oil became the main beneficiary of the risk repricing, while South Korean equities extended their chip-driven rout.
Brent Crude Oil RSI Breaks Out After 3 Rejections
The daily RSI for Brent now reads near 55, back above the neutral 50 line. The indicator measures the speed and scale of recent price moves. Readings above 50 signal that buyers are in control of momentum.
A descending resistance line had capped every recovery since the RSI peaked near 90 in early March. Sellers defended that line twice in May, near 64 and 58, and once more in June, near 46.
However, momentum bottomed near 27 in late June, close to oversold territory. In early July, the RSI finally pushed through the trendline. The indicator then accelerated above the neutral zone, confirming the breakout.
The signal would flip bearish only if the RSI falls back below 50 and returns under the broken line. Until then, momentum favors the recovery that began at the July low.
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Puts $90-$92 in Focus
Between February and May, Brent traded inside a large symmetrical triangle. The pattern connected the $118 area peak with the $91 area low. Price broke down from the triangle in late May and slid to the $71-$73 support zone by early July.
That zone held. Buyers built a base there over two weeks, and Monday’s session pushed the structure higher. Brent opened near $78 and printed an intraday high of $83.54, a gain of 10.76% at the time of writing.
The next barrier sits at $90-$92. That area served as a triangle support in April and early June. It now acts as the confirmation zone of the earlier breakdown. A rejection there could validate the bearish structure and send the price back to $71-$73.
A daily close above $92, however, would invalidate the breakdown and restore the bullish outlook from earlier this year. The geopolitical risk premium could stay elevated as long as Iran keeps the Strait contested.
Whether $90-$92 caps the recovery will decide if Monday’s spike becomes a reversal or another lower high.
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