Seven Wall Street firms cut their Coinbase (COIN) price targets on Friday after a weak start to the fourth quarter. Trading fees reached only about $165 million through October 25, and the stock fell 6% to $150.75 before the open.
Wall Street cut its Coinbase forecasts because people are trading less crypto, and Coinbase makes most of its money from fees on each trade.
Why Does $165 Million in 25 Days Worry the Banks?
A price target is an analyst’s estimate of where a stock will trade in 12 months. Trading fees made up nearly half of Coinbase’s $1.22 billion in third-quarter revenue, so a slower pace cuts the earnings estimates behind those targets.
“Transaction revenue through October 25th is approximately $165 million,” Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said on Thursday’s call.
Barclays went lowest, cutting to $120 from $149, or 25% below Thursday’s $160.59 close.
Mizuho, which cut to $145 from $155, projects about $607 million in Q4 transaction revenue. That is slightly above Q3’s $590 million but 11% below the $684 million consensus before the results.
Wells Fargo moved to $174 from $200, Compass Point to $165 from $187, Needham to $197 from $205, and Canaccord to $275 from $300. Jefferies, at $174 from $183, cited the expense outlook, while Mizuho flagged retail traders drifting to Robinhood.
Q3’s figure was already down 44% year on year, per Coinbase’s quarterly filing with US regulators.
COIN shareholders, already down 51% over the past year, now face lower targets one day after a $718.7 million headline profit built mostly on paper gains.
Why October’s Slow Start May Not Decide Coinbase’s Quarter
Early-quarter figures have undershot before. In July, Coinbase reported about $130 million in transaction revenue through July 26, according to its Q2 deck. The third quarter closed at $590 million.
Haas also said trading conditions improved in September. Coinbase lowered its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to $4.15 billion to $4.3 billion, a move Mizuho called a positive.
Profit, however, still leans on token prices. Operating income fell to $61.7 million from $480.5 million, while a $715 million unrealized crypto gain drove most of net income.
Prediction markets, where users trade contracts on event outcomes, passed $200 million in annualized revenue. Average holdings of USDC, a dollar-pegged digital token, hit a record $22 billion on Coinbase.
What Comes Next for COIN Shareholders?
The cuts landed as crypto stocks slid after the $6.3 billion Binance hack, a figure Binance itself reported. The exchange said withdrawals should resume within 48 hours.
Pre-set share sales by CEO Brian Armstrong, co-founder Fred Ehrsam, and President Emilie Choi can begin November 16, covering up to 13.6 million shares.
TipRanks still showed a 30-analyst average target of $207.61, with 19 Buy ratings against two Sells. The lowest target in that range sits at $100.
The post 7 Banks Change Their Coinbase Stock Price Targets After Q3 Earnings appeared first on BeInCrypto.
