Bitcoin and crypto enter another potentially turbulent week with fresh US inflation data, a packed Federal Reserve speaking schedule, and oil-market developments all capable of shifting expectations for December’s FOMC meeting.
After the recent Wall Street crash and BTC’s slide to multi-month lows, even a small surprise could trigger another sharp move.
CPI and PPI
Monday is expected to be a slow day in terms of macro events, even though prices have already gone wild. The biggest macro factor arrives on Tuesday when the US will publish the October Consumer Price Index data. September’s headline inflation came in at 3.7% year-over-year, and Tuesday’s report will be closely watched for signs that price pressures are finally cooling.
Current expectations point to a softer monthly reading, but markets still price in roughly an 80% chance of another 25-basis-point Fed hike in December. A hotter-than-expected CPI print would likely reinforce the case for further tightening, could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, and put risk-on assets such as BTC under pressure again. A softer reading could do the opposite, weakening the hike narrative for December.
Friday will deliver further inflation data with the release of the Producer Price Index. Expectations suggest a 0.4% monthly PPI increase, down sharply from September’s 1.3%, while core PPI is expected around 0.3%. This metric matters because persistent price pressure further up the supply chain can eventually filter through to consumer prices and influence the Fed’s policy.
Key Events This Week:
1. October CPI Inflation data – Tuesday
2. OPEC Monthly Report – Wednesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
4. October Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
5. October PPI Inflation data – Friday
6. Total of 17 Fed Speaker Events This Week
We expect another volatile week ahead.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 8, 2026
Fed Speakers and Oil
The Kobeissi Letter noted that 17 Federal Reserve speaker events are scheduled throughout the week, which could be almost as important as the inflation data itself. Officials, including Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, and Mary Daly, are due to speak, creating numerous opportunities for markets to reassess how aggressively the Fed may tighten next.
The fourth major catalyst comes from the energy market, as OPEC will publish its monthly oil-market report on Wednesday. It could influence crude prices through updated supply and demand projections. Oil has become a major factor in the inflation outlook since the Iran war broke out, and another sustained price spike would complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation down.
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