President Donald Trump has turned down Iran’s offer of a seven-day ceasefire. He has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections, US officials told the Wall Street Journal.
The news broke on a weekend, with stock markets shut. Oil markets are also closed until Sunday evening, US time. That leaves Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, to react first.
What Iran Offered and Why Trump Said No
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi unveiled the plan at the UN General Assembly on Thursday. Qatar carried it to Washington.
Under the plan, fighting would stop on every front, including Lebanon. The US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease oil sanctions. Iran would get some frozen assets back.
In return, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea lane is the main exit for Gulf oil and gas. Nuclear talks would then restart.
“The moment they accept this plan, from the next day, this timetable can start, and after seven days, the strait will be open,” Aljazeera reported, citing Araghchi.
Washington said no. Trump doubts Iran will meet his demands, officials told the Journal. The US has also told Iran the blockade stays. The Journal reported that the blockade is doing deep damage to Iran’s economy.
The plan closely mirrors a June 17 deal. That truce briefly stopped the fighting, then collapsed.
Trump Told the UN the Election Would Not Shape His Iran Policy
Four days before the report, Trump stood before world leaders at the UN and dismissed the midterms.
“I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran. It doesn’t even enter my mind,” Trump said.
In the same speech, he accused Iran of stalling talks to see how he fares at the polls. He also said he must choose between a deal and a quick move to “annihilate” the Islamic Republic.
Privately, officials say Trump sees a new bombing campaign after the vote as likely. In public, he says Tehran is begging for a deal after the midterms that dismantles its nuclear program.
His view could still shift as the war drags on and once the results are in. The vote is on November 3, just 38 days away.
Will Oil and Bitcoin Hold After Trump’s Iran Decision?
The last time US strikes resumed, on July 8, Brent crude jumped more than 3% to $76.48 a barrel. Brent is the global oil benchmark.
Oil is far more expensive now. Brent closed Friday at $104.32, per Trading Economics. That is about 36% above its level on the day strikes resumed in July. It trades for $101.86 at press time.
Brent contracts slipped 1.15% during Friday’s session to $95.95. Likewise, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $84,000 in the immediate aftermath of the news.
The big drop came earlier in the week. Bitcoin fell from above $87,000 on Wednesday to about $83,250 on Thursday. It has hovered just above that low since.
In past rounds, Bitcoin rallied on peace signals. It climbed past $81,000 when Trump weighed ending the war.
On Friday, Iran said it was still waiting for a formal US answer. Talks through regional mediators have not ended. The midterms, after which Trump reportedly expects the bombing to resume, are five weeks away.
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