Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains locked in a persistent bear market. The Michael Saylor-led company has struggled to regain momentum as its stock mirrors Bitcoin’s decline.
As Bitcoin corrects, Strategy stock follows, reinforcing volatility and heightening sensitivity to digital asset sentiment shifts.
MSTR Is Breaking Out
About a week ago, the Chaikin Money Flow formed a bullish divergence against price. While MSTR recorded a lower low, CMF posted a higher reading. This divergence signaled improving capital inflows despite falling prices, suggesting selective accumulation beneath the surface.
The short-term impact was visible as the MSTR price rebounded roughly 20% across Friday and Monday trading sessions. However, the broader technical structure remains fragile. Macro indicators still lean bearish, and sustained upside depends on stronger conviction returning to Bitcoin markets.
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Can The Oversold Stock Mirror 2022 Recovery?
The Relative Strength Index has hovered near oversold territory since November 2025. A brief improvement appeared in January before RSI fell below 30.0 again last week. An RSI below 30 often signals oversold conditions, which historically precede technical rebounds.
A similar setup occurred in May 2022. At that time, MSTR rebounded 123% after entering oversold territory. That rally unfolded despite Bitcoin experiencing uneven momentum. Investors treated Strategy as a distinct equity with its own growth narrative.
This cycle differs materially. Strategy’s corporate identity is now deeply connected to its Bitcoin holdings strategy. Demand for MSTR shares increasingly reflects sentiment toward Bitcoin accumulation.
MSTR Follows Bitcoin
In prior downturns, the MSTR price occasionally moved independently of Bitcoin. During earlier oversold phases, the stock rallied even as Bitcoin corrected. That divergence highlighted investor confidence in Strategy’s enterprise software operations and balance sheet flexibility.
Today, correlation metrics show stronger alignment between MSTR and Bitcoin price action. Since November 2025, Bitcoin’s steady decline has exerted downward pressure on Strategy shares. Market participants increasingly treat the stock as a Bitcoin-linked instrument rather than a standalone tech equity.
As a result, Strategy’s outlook now depends heavily on Bitcoin’s next move. If Bitcoin stabilizes or enters accumulation, MSTR may follow. Conversely, extended crypto weakness could prolong the bear phase in Strategy stock despite internal accumulation policies.
Saylor Remains Bullish
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, is unbothered by the decline in MSTR’s value. During an interview with CNBC, Saylor highlighted that the company is far from affected by BTC’s decline. He stated that volatility is the bug, but volatility is also the feature. He further strengthened the company’s outlook of accumulation over selling.
“We will not be selling. Instead, I believe we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor stated.
Thus, Strategy will likely continue buying BTC, and MSTR will continue following its trajectory until the market changes drastically for one of them.
MSTR Price Targets Identified
MSTR price trades near $133, hovering around the $137 region aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This technical zone acts as a critical inflection point. Future direction will likely depend on Bitcoin price stability and broader crypto market sentiment.
If bearish conditions persist, recent gains could fade quickly. A drop below $122, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, may expose $104, the February low. Should selling intensify further, the next structural support lies near $83.
On the upside, the immediate recovery target sits near $157. Reclaiming that level would offset recent losses and improve technical structure. If Saylor maintains Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation stance, sustained commitment could attract renewed investor interest and support a stronger rebound in MSTR shares.
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