Traders on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market, now assign a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached before January 2028. The contract has attracted more than $2.76 million in trading volume.
The odds have more than doubled since November 2025, when the market opened near 30%. The contract peaked above 70% in March before pulling back slightly to its current level.
Midterm Risk Fuels the Bet
Kalshi’s impeachment contract resolves “Yes” if the US House of Representatives passes articles of impeachment, verified through congress.gov. It does not require Senate conviction or removal from office.
“The shift suggests growing expectations of political trouble ahead, though outcomes remain uncertain,” stated Walter Bloomberg, a popular account on X.
The steady climb reflects trader expectations around the 2026 midterms. Separate prediction markets give Democrats roughly a 71% chance of retaking the House.
A Democratic majority would likely pursue impeachment proceedings, mirroring the two House votes during Trump’s first term.
Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the rise. Trump’s rhetoric on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed calls from Democratic lawmakers for impeachment or invoking the 25th Amendment.
However, a separate Kalshi market on full removal, which requires a two-thirds Senate vote or the 25th Amendment, trades far lower at roughly 27%.
Prediction markets can also misfire, as traders learned during the 2016 presidential election.
No formal impeachment proceedings are underway as of April 22, 2026.
Whether the odds continue rising will depend largely on November’s midterm results and how Congress responds to the administration’s foreign policy decisions.
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