With the US-Iran conflict reshaping global markets, oil surging past $94 a barrel, and tech infrastructure becoming a direct military target, equities across sectors are repricing risk in real time. Amid the volatility, BeInCrypto analysts have identified three US stocks to watch.
Each carries a distinct catalyst tied to the current geopolitical shift, backed by price action worth tracking through late March.
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF)
CF Industries, the world’s largest ammonia producer, trades near $136 after a 60% rally from its January low of $75. The move coincides with a nitrogen supply shock triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The shock disrupted roughly 25% of global nitrogen trade.
Ammonia is produced entirely in North America. That makes it a direct beneficiary as urea prices surged from $475 to $680 per metric ton during the spring planting window. This is the reason why it is one of the key US stocks to watch in late March.
The company reported $7.08 billion in 2025 revenue with a 33.9% margin and $1.79 billion in free cash flow, supported by $1.34 billion in buybacks.
On the daily chart, CF broke out of a bull flag pattern with a hidden bullish divergence flashing between March 4 and March 10. Price printed a higher low while the relative strength index, or RSI, a momentum indicator, made a lower low. This confirmed weakening sell pressure before the breakout.
The measured move points toward $179, with $151 as the first technical hurdle if $134 holds. On the downside, $123 offers support (as the strongest technical floor).
A drop below $106 would weaken the entire pattern. The only way the downside risk gets tested is if the RSI, currently in the overbought zone, triggers a pullback or the ceasefire happens, restoring the Middle Eastern nitrogen supply.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
The second among the US stocks to watch is Exxon Mobil, the Dow Jones-listed oil supermajor trading near $154. The stock rallied 35% between early January and March 2, fueled by WTI crude surging past $94 per barrel after Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 20% of global oil supply.
Exxon reported $28.8 billion in 2025 earnings on record production of 4.7 million barrels per day, a 40-year high, with $37.2 billion returned to shareholders. This shows the oil-driven upside trigger was already in place before the Iran conflict amplified it.
On the daily chart, XOM formed a bull flag after the initial pole and confirmed a breakout on March 12 with a gap-up open. However, the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, an indicator tracking institutional buying pressure, tells a different story.
The CMF has flatlined at -0.22, well below zero, even as prices pushed higher. This suggests the current rally lacks institutional backing and remains largely sentiment-driven.
If oil concerns persist, the measured move targets $180 and even $189 from here. On the downside, $147 is the critical floor. A break below $143 accelerates selling, while a drop under $134 neutralizes the entire bullish structure.
The CMF weakness makes a pullback more likely if ceasefire talks gain traction.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
The third among the US stocks to watch is NVIDIA, the AI chip leader, trading near $183. The stock is down over 3% year-to-date but still carries 57% year-on-year gains, highlighting the underlying structural strength beneath the surface weakness.
The current bearish trigger is Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directly naming NVIDIA on its target list on March 11. Its largest R&D center in Haifa is among 29 US tech infrastructure sites identified for potential strikes.
NVIDIA posted $215.9 billion in FY2026 revenue, up 65% year-on-year, with Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78 billion, beating estimates, reported in its January earnings release. So the numbers still look bullish.
On the daily chart, a head-and-shoulders pattern is developing, with the neckline near $169. However, the CMF crossed above the zero line for the first time since late November on March 12.
The last time this happened, an 8% rally followed. If the geopolitical threat eases, a hold above $182 and a reclaim of $187 opens the recovery path. A move above $197 would flip the structure neutral to bullish.
On the downside, if Iran tensions escalate further, $173 acts as a strong floor. A break below exposes the $169 neckline. That could trigger a measured move toward $164 or lower.
Besides the strike risk, dollar strength driven by escalating Iran tensions could add pressure, as risk-off flows typically rotate out of growth-heavy tech names.
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